Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brevin Jordan from EV Insight

Brevin JordanReceiving Yards

Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Brevin Jordan is predicted by the projection model to place in the 76th percentile among tight ends with 3.9 targets.
The predictive model expects Brevin Jordan to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense in this week’s contest (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
Brevin Jordan’s 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a noteable growth in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 13.0 mark.
Brevin Jordan’s 81.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a substantial growth in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 49.2% rate.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
Brevin Jordan has posted quite a few less air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
This year, the stout Jets defense has conceded a paltry 65.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards