Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brevin JordanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Brevin Jordan’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Brevin Jordan is predicted by the projection model to place in the 76th percentile among tight ends with 3.9 targets.
- The predictive model expects Brevin Jordan to be a much bigger part of his team’s passing offense in this week’s contest (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
- Brevin Jordan’s 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a noteable growth in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 13.0 mark.
- Brevin Jordan’s 81.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a substantial growth in his pass-catching talent over last year’s 49.2% rate.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- Brevin Jordan has posted quite a few less air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (19.0 per game).
- This year, the stout Jets defense has conceded a paltry 65.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-best rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
