Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-127) after it opened @ 71.5 (-117).

Pros

The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
In this week’s contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among WRs with 9.2 targets.
With an exceptional 30.4% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (98.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards