Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bears vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 74.5 (-127) after it opened @ 71.5 (-117).
Pros
- The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- In this week’s contest, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among WRs with 9.2 targets.
- With an exceptional 30.4% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (98.0) this season than he did last season (77.0).
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The model projects the Lions as the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 62.4 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
