Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Saints vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-130) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A throwing game script is implied by the Panthers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Panthers are projected by the projections to call 66.8 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
- Adam Thielen’s 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents an impressive progression in his receiving skills over last season’s 47.0 rate.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
- In regards to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Panthers ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
- This year, the strong New Orleans Saints defense has conceded a measly 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-best rate in football.
- This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a meager 7.4 yards.
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, New Orleans’s unit has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
