Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-130) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
- THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- A.J. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- A.J. Brown has notched far fewer air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
- The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
