Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 72.5 (-130) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (90.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 8.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
A.J. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
A.J. Brown has notched far fewer air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (103.0 per game).
The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards