Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-130) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- A passing game script is implied by the Eagles being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this week’s game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.
- A.J. Brown has put up significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons
- The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.60 seconds per snap.
- Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 128.0) vs. wideouts this year.
- This year, the formidable Cowboys defense has yielded a paltry 58.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in football.
- The Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
