NFL

Bets

December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

FTN Staff

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (-130) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

The Eagles have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
A passing game script is implied by the Eagles being a -3.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this week’s game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 9.6 targets.
A.J. Brown has put up significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (97.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).

Cons

The projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 28.60 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.
The Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 128.0) vs. wideouts this year.
This year, the formidable Cowboys defense has yielded a paltry 58.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-best rate in football.
The Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards