Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Will Levis from EV Insight

Will LevisPassing Yards

Right now, Will Levis’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-110).

Pros

The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has been torched for a monstrous 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-worst rate in football.

Cons

Right now, the least pass-centric team in the league (56.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards