Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Will LevisPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, Will Levis’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are heavy underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
- This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has been torched for a monstrous 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-worst rate in football.
Cons
- Right now, the least pass-centric team in the league (56.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tennessee Titans.
- Our trusted projections expect the Titans to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
