Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Dolphins vs. Titans
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 284.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 284.5 (-137) after it opened @ 279.5 (-117).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for significantly more adjusted yards per game (292.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.0% to 70.3%.
- Tua Tagovailoa is positioned as one of the most effective QBs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 8.75 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 96th percentile.
- This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has given up a massive 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the highest rate in the NFL.
- This year, the poor Tennessee Titans defense has been torched for the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing squads: a monstrous 8.55 yards.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a big 13.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Dolphins to pass on 55.6% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.8 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
