Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense as the quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Cons

Tom Brady has thrown for many fewer yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
Tom Brady has been among the least efficient passers in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.56 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 18th percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year (67.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, yielding 7.19 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.73 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards