Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 213.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Broncos ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
- Russell Wilson’s 67.5% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a significant improvement in his throwing accuracy over last season’s 59.3% rate.
- This year, the anemic Chargers defense has been torched for a whopping 290.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are projected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Broncos have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Los Angeles’s safety corps has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 9th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
