Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 206.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Broncos are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Cons
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 58.7%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the least effective passers in the NFL this year, averaging just 6.62 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 21st percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
271
Passing Yards
271
Passing Yards
