Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 271.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 271.5 (-110) after it opened @ 269.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 337.0 yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-least yards in the NFL (just 204.0 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in football against the Denver Broncos defense this year (68.7%).
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 6.51 yards-per-target: the least in the NFL.
- The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
295
Passing Yards
295
Passing Yards
