Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 205.5 (-115).

Pros

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Rams are giant underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most among all QBs.
The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (39.1 per game) this year.

Cons

Matthew Stafford’s 59.7% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a noteworthy decrease in his passing precision over last season’s 65.3% rate.
The Ravens pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.20 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in football.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.16 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore’s group of safeties has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
217
Passing Yards