Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.9% to 68.9%.

Cons

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.7 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (64.0% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 6.8 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards