Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-120) after it opened @ 200.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
- Lamar Jackson’s passing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 62.9% to 68.9%.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 29.7 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year (64.0% Adjusted Completion%).
- This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 6.8 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards
187
Passing Yards
