Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-113).
Pros
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
- The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to throw 36.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- Justin Herbert profiles as one of the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 260.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
- The Broncos pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
