Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 249.5 (+110) after it opened @ 254.5 (-113).

Pros

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to throw 36.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Justin Herbert profiles as one of the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 260.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
The Broncos pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.36 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
A running game script is suggested by the Chargers being a 3-point favorite this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Broncos defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards