Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Joshua DobbsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Raiders vs. Vikings
Right now, Joshua Dobbs’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-142) after it opened @ 230.5 (-127).
Pros
- The Vikings may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
- The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
- When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (74.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to run just 64.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Joshua Dobbs has attempted a mere 11.3 throws per game this year, ranking in the 11th percentile when it comes to QBs.
- With an atrocious tally of 68.0 adjusted passing yards per game (11th percentile), Joshua Dobbs rates as one of the weakest passers in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards
248
Passing Yards
