Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-142) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Josh Allen has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.

Cons

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL against the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards