WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 250.5 yards (+104/-142).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 250.5 (-142) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 70.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- Josh Allen has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL against the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
230
Passing Yards
230
Passing Yards
