Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Flacco from EV Insight

Joe FlaccoPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 209.5 (-115) after it opened @ 193.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns may throw the ball less in this week’s game (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup quarterback Joe Flacco.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a massive 66.3 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Joe Flacco to attempt 31.6 passes in this game, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.
Joe Flacco’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 58.0% to 52.5%.
Joe Flacco grades out as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a measly 5.60 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 17th percentile.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s collection of CBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
185
Passing Yards