Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 190.5 (-115).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are forecasted by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 61.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
- The Falcons offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Desmond Ridder has attempted just 28.1 passes per game this year, ranking in the 21st percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.
- Desmond Ridder is positioned as one of the weakest passers in the league this year, averaging 182.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 24th percentile.
- With a feeble 62.6% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, Desmond Ridder rates among the least on-target QBs in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
