Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 273.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 273.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 67.2% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow has been among the top passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 290.0 yards per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a stellar 70.0% Completion%, checking in at the 97th percentile.

Cons

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards