Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-115) after it opened @ 245.5 (-110).

Pros

The Seahawks are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 37.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year.

Cons

The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a lowly 55.8 per game on average).
Geno Smith’s 65.5% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteworthy decline in his throwing precision over last season’s 69.4% mark.
This year, the daunting 49ers defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a measly 6.8 yards.
The 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.16 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards