Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
49ers vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 235.5 (-115) after it opened @ 245.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a heavy 13.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 66.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Geno Smith to throw 37.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (39.8 per game) this year.
Cons
- The projections expect the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a lowly 55.8 per game on average).
- Geno Smith’s 65.5% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteworthy decline in his throwing precision over last season’s 69.4% mark.
- This year, the daunting 49ers defense has yielded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a measly 6.8 yards.
- The 49ers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.16 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
