NFL

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December 6, 2023

Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Dak Prescott from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Dak PrescottPassing Yards

Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 299.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 299.5 (-110) after it opened @ 291.5 (-110).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 7.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.89 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: most in football.
Dak Prescott has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (280.0) this year than he did last year (241.0).

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
This year, the imposing Eagles defense has yielded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a measly 4.3 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
298
Passing Yards