Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Cowboys vs. Texans
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 236.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 236.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Dak Prescott has been among the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.55 yards-per-target while grading out in the 76th percentile.
- The Houston Texans defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 33.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: least in the NFL.
- Dak Prescott has passed for substantially fewer yards per game (229.0) this season than he did last season (288.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards
267
Passing Yards
