Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Chargers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 299.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 299.5 (-115) after it opened @ 288.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Justin Herbert has been among the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging just 6.52 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
306
Passing Yards
306
Passing Yards
