Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 299.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 299.5 (-115) after it opened @ 288.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

Justin Herbert has been among the worst per-play QBs in the league this year, averaging just 6.52 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 15th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.64 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
306
Passing Yards