Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The final byes of the 2022 season leave us with a smaller-than-normal Sunday slate, but there are still enough games for us to pick out a nice same-game parlay for the Week 14 Sunday action.
Each week in this space, we’re picking out our favorite same-game parlay for the Sunday action to get in on the betting action.
DraftKings NFL Week 14 Same Game Parlay
Vikings/Lions Total Over 51.5
Justin Jefferson Over 89.5 Receiving Yards
T.J. Hockenson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards
+330, DraftKings Sportsbook
Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions face off for the second time this season in the second-highest point total (52) of the Week 14 NFL slate. When the teams met in Week 3, the Vikings overcame a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 28-24 on a K.J. Osborn touchdown with 45 seconds remaining.
The Vikings (10-2) come into Sunday’s matchup atop the NFC North and can clinch the division title with a victory over the Lions. The Vikings opened the week as 2.5-point favorites and have since been bet down to 1.5-point underdogs. However, over their last six games, the Vikings have faced five teams that are .500 (four with winning records) or better and are 5-1 with a 4.6 average margin of victory over that span.
The Lions (5-7), meanwhile have won four of their last five, including a blowout home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars 40-17 in Week 13. Detroit is averaging 28.2 ppg over their last five (fourth highest in the league) and look to take advantage of a vulnerable Vikings defense that has allowed 23.3 ppg (11th highest) to opposing teams this season and 29.3 ppg over their last three games.
Given both teams’ offensive prowess and defensive shortcomings and the bizarre point-spread shift, the over is the play here.
Enter Justin Jefferson. The third-year All-Pro wideout will look to improve against a Lions defense that limited him to just three receptions for 14 yards in Week 3. That’s not happening again. Detroit allows the third-highest receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (188); meanwhile, in five road games this year, Jefferson is averaging a whopping 122 receiving yards per game (27 more than his home splits) and has topped the 89.5 threshold in his last four. In a game that we already love the over, let’s roll with the best player on the field to take advantage of a porous Lions secondary. Given his 29.7% target share (seventh in the NFL), his 39.6% air yards share, in a potential shootout, I like Jefferson, regardless of gamescript, to smash this over.
What about a possible T.J. Hockenson revenge game? Yes, please. Since being traded from Detroit to Minnesota, Hockenson has averaged 8 targets, 6 receptions and 45 receiving yards per game. The 45 receiving yards per game may seem tight with a line of 44.5, but I love it. The line on most books is 48.5, so the four yards of insurance for purposes of this parlay are a nice edge. The Lions allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (54.1) and, as with Jefferson, I like Hockenson’s volume to get him over the 44.5 total. The Lions are scoring on offense, their run defense is better than their pass defense, and the talent of the other Minnesota pass catchers should all contribute to Hockenson delivering more than 45 yards through the air.
Side Bet: As a separate bet, I love Hockenson to score in this matchup. The Lions are tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed to the tight end position (0.67 per game). And of course there is the revenge-game narrative. Check the FTN Prop Shop for the best odds.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
