Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 210.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- C.J. Stroud checks in as one of the leading quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 277.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.
- With a fantastic 7.94 adjusted yards-per-target (89th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- In this week’s contest, C.J. Stroud is expected by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.4.
- Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- C.J. Stroud is positioned as one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the league this year with a 62.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
191
Passing Yards
191
Passing Yards
