Week 14 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Nico Collins from EV Insight

Nico CollinsReceiving Yards

Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 82.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Nico Collins to notch 7.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Nico Collins’s 24.2% Target Rate this year marks a noteable gain in his pass game usage over last year’s 19.2% mark.
Nico Collins has posted many more air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
Nico Collins’s 85.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant improvement in his receiving skills over last season’s 48.0 figure.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 51.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.1 per game) this year.
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 99.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The Jets pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards