Week 14 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aidan O'Connell from EV Insight

Aidan O’ConnellPassing Yards

Right now, Aidan O’Connell’s passing yards prop is set at 213.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 213.5 (-133) after it opened @ 227.5 (-117).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.
This year, the porous Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded a colossal 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-worst rate in the NFL.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.9% pass rate.
The model projects the Raiders to call the 4th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
This year, the tough Vikings defense has yielded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a meager 7.2 yards.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards