Week 14 NFL Player Props of the Week

We’re back again with our favorite player props of the week. As we gear up for the Sunday action of Week 14, I’ve got some bets I’m eying.

Here are some of my favorite individual player props for Week 14.

Garrett Wilson Longest Reception Over 22.5

(-109, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Garrett Wilson is one of the best young receivers in the NFL, and he finds himself in a good spot this week. The Jets and Bills are division rivals, and while the 10-point spread indicates a blowout, I think this should be a competitive game. I do think the Jets will likely be trailing for most of this game, forcing them into more of a pass-heavy offense. While the Bills do have a good defense, I think the volume will be enough to overcome that. Von Miller being out should also reduce the natural pressure Buffalo will get, which is good for this Jets offense. 

Wilson has especially excelled in games without Zach Wilson this season. While he’s gone over this number in seven of 12 on the season, he’s gone over this number in every game with Joe Flacco or Mike White under center, averaging over 80 receiving yards per game. The talent profile is also very impressive, he’s broken 7 tackles on receptions this season, third in the NFL. While the Bills did not allow a receiver to hit this number against a sad Patriots team last week, they had allowed the opposing WR1 to go over this number in eight straight games (including Garrett Wilson with Zach Wilson still under center).

D’Andre Swift Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Minnesota has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and receptions to opposing running backs. We’ve seen their defense targeted there very heavily over the past couple weeks, with Ty Johnson and Zonovan Knight going for 38 and 28 last week. Stevenson then went for 78 yards followed by Tony Pollard going 6-109-1 through the air. Minnesota is clearly limiting big plays and playing more of a bend-but-don’t-break defense, that is allowing these underneath passes.

We know the talent profile is there for D’Andre Swift. He clearly proved he was a viable pass catcher in his rookie season. We also finally saw good news last week with him outsnapping Jamaal Williams for the first time. He saw 50% for the first time since his injury, and the coaching staff said that he was finally looking healthier in practice this week. The Lions are competitive, and now that they actually have a shot, I’m expecting Swift to be more and more involved in this gameplan. 

Christian McCaffrey Over 13.5 Rush Attempts

(-127, Unibet)

Just like last week, I’m back on Christian McCaffrey despite being in a tough matchup. While I understand the Buccaneers are a good run defense, this San Francisco offense is built around running the ball and controlling time of possession, which will be especially important with Brock Purdy under center. He carried the ball 17 times for 66 yards last week, in their first game without Elijah Mitchell. Jordan Mason will be in the mix, but I do believe McCaffery should expand on his north-of-70% snap share. He has 17, 11 and 18 carries in his three matchups against tough opponents, but I think the game script should be good here. I expect the Buccaneers offense to struggle against this Niners defense, not putting them in a situation where they have to be more pass heavy. I expect a slower, lower scoring brawl that has CMC running 15-plus times for over 60 yards.