NFL

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November 30, 2023

Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Travis Etienne from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Travis EtienneRushing Yards

Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-114) after it opened @ 67.5 (-117).

Pros

This week’s line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jaguars to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.3 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Travis Etienne to accumulate 16.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.96 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
In regards to executing run-blocking assignments (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Jaguars profiles as the worst in football last year.
Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency has declined this year, notching just 3.66 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.07 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards