Pros
- This game’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- The projections expect Courtland Sutton to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
- This year, the porous Texans defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a whopping 9.16 yards.
Cons
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive blueprint to skew 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Broncos this year (just 53.2 per game on average).
- Courtland Sutton rates as one of the weakest WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 2.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards