Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-130) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

This game’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
The projections expect Courtland Sutton to garner 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
This year, the porous Texans defense has conceded the 4th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a whopping 9.16 yards.

Cons

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive blueprint to skew 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Broncos this year (just 53.2 per game on average).
Courtland Sutton rates as one of the weakest WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 2.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards