Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Bailey ZappePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 200.5 (-115) after it opened @ 210.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Bailey Zappe to throw 36.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 8th-most among all quarterbacks.
- The Chargers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (301.0 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.
Cons
- Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in football (59.1% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Patriots.
- With an atrocious rate of 41.0 adjusted passing yards per game (19th percentile), Bailey Zappe places among the weakest QBs in the league this year.
- Bailey Zappe’s 50.3% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a material diminishment in his throwing precision over last year’s 70.0% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
