Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to run on 41.8% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.7 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 16.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Among all RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the 85th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 54.0% of the workload in his team’s run game.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 3.90 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.77 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
