Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Trey McBride from EV Insight

Trey McBrideReceiving Yards

Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-120) after it opened @ 49.5 (-120).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Trey McBride to accrue 7.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Trey McBride has been much more involved in his offense’s pass attack this season (17.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (7.2%).
Trey McBride has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (42.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).

Cons

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cardinals profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.8%) vs. TEs this year (69.8%).
This year, the imposing Steelers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a measly 6.7 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards