Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive gameplan to skew 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
- This week’s line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to garner 18.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Rachaad White has been a more important option in his team’s ground game this season (59.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (33.7%).
- The Carolina Panthers defense owns the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.98 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 128.6 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league last year in run-blocking.
- Rachaad White’s rushing effectiveness (3.63 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (17th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
