Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Noah Fant from EV Insight

Noah FantReceiving Yards

Right now, Noah Fant’s receiving yards prop is set at 14.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 14.5 (-110) after it opened @ 12.5 (-110).

Pros

The Seahawks are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Noah Fant’s 9.7 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year’s 7.6 mark.

Cons

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cowboys, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.5 per game) this year.
Noah Fant has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (25.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Noah Fant has been used much less in his offense’s passing attack.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in the league.
The Cowboys linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards