NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 66.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the present time, the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Seattle Seahawks.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this game, D.K. Metcalf is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.2 targets.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cowboys, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.5 per game) this year.
- D.K. Metcalf’s 60.1% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive decline in his receiving proficiency over last year’s 65.0% rate.
- This year, the imposing Cowboys defense has conceded a meager 118.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best in football.
- The Cowboys pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, conceding 7.08 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Cowboys linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
