Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kyren WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Browns
Right now, Kyren Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s spread suggests a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3.5 points.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 133.2 total plays called: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
- The predictive model expects Kyren Williams to accrue 17.8 carries in this game, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- After making up 14.1% of his offense’s run game usage last year, Kyren Williams has been called on more in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 66.9%.
- Kyren Williams’s 91.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season marks a material gain in his rushing skills over last season’s 15.0 mark.
Cons
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.
- The Browns defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 4.18 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards
84
Rushing Yards
