Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The UFC is in Austin this weekend to feature a main event headlined by Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush. Dariush is looking to bounce back after losing to Charles Oliveira. Tsarukyan wants to extend his winning streak to three and get closer to challenging Islam Makhachev for the belt.
The co-main event was initially scheduled between Dan Hooker and Bobby Green, but an injury to Hooker pulled him from the fight, and now Jalin Turner has stepped up to the challenge. Turner is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak, while Green is looking to extend his two-fight winning streak with another finish. Debuting in the bantamweight division, Deiveson Figueiredo challenges Rob Font in another exciting matchup on the main card. Figueiredo recently ended his saga with Brandon Moreno and now sets his eyes on a new division. Another debutant in a new weight class is Kelvin Gastelum, who returns to welterweight after years up at middleweight. His first challenge is the highly talented Sean Brady, who wants to bounce back from a recent loss to Belal Muhammad. Clay Guida also makes another appearance in 2023, as his first fight this year ended in a defeat and perhaps put him one step closer to retirement. Nonetheless, Guida is looking to rebound against Dangerous Brazilian Joaquim “Neto Bjj” Silva.
There are six fights on the main card this week, and below, I’ve broken each of them down and given you a best bet for each. All odds are per BetMGM.
Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Odds
Beneil Dariush +275, Arman Tsarukyan -335
After a rough start to 2023 for Dariush, he’s back in Austin this weekend, looking to bounce back after a first-round stoppage loss to Charles Oliveira in June. “Benny” was on an undeniable eight-fight win streak before he lost to the former Champion. Dariush started in the UFC in 2014. He is 16-5 inside the promotion and 22-5-1 overall as a pro. His best weapons are his left leg and left hand; he utilizes leg kicks to set up his mighty left hand and vice versa. On the ground, Dariush is also an ace using jiujitsu to defend takedowns and threaten submissions. One of his best qualities is his durability, as many times in his career, he has walked through fire to find finishes or turn the tide once his opponent has gassed out. Dariush’s durability, though, could be reaching its limit, and the loss to Oliveira made it very evident. Considering Arman Tsarukyan is also an ace on the ground, both fighters should cancel each other out on the ground early and throw blows. Tsarukyan, similar to Dariush, likes to throw kicks but with more variety and speed.
Tsarukyan also fights out of an orthodox stance, which is interesting because Oliveira was able to land a head kick out of a traditional stance, and it could be a path to victory. Arman Tsarukyan is 7-2 in the UFC and has been with the promotion since 2019. His first professional loss came against current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev in his UFC debut. The loss made a statement and certainly put Tsarukyan on the map as he took the champ the distance, and to this day, you can argue that Tsarukyan won that fight. Tsarukyan bounced back with a five-fight winning streak spanning two years. It would end after a controversial loss to Mateusz Gamrot in 2022. Since then, he has bounced back with wins over Damir Ismagulov and Joaquim Silva and fought back in June, one week before Dariush fought in June. This fight is an example of excellent matchmaking as Dariush is looking to right his wrongs and get back to his title shot that was elusive for so long and taken away instantly. Tsarukyan looks to continue his win streak and continue to hunt for gold, and beating a name like Dariush is excellent for his resume.
These fighters are nearly identical in terms of measurables and numbers. They both average about four significant strikes landed per minute; they also have the same reach and defend over 50% of strikes coming their way. They differ most in where I think the fight will be won for Tsarukyan. Arman averages nearly four takedowns per fifteen minutes, which doubles the amount that Dariush Averages and could mean trouble if Arman racks up control time early and forces Dariush to fight from behind.
Bet: Arman Tsarukyan by KO/TKO or decision +110 | Tsarukyan in Round 4, 5 or by decision +150
Green vs. Turner Odds
Bobby Green +175, Jalin Turner -215
Originally scheduled to fight Dan Hooker, Green now fights Turner on short notice after Hooker pulled out of the fight with a broken arm. This will be Green’s fourth appearance in the octagon in 2023; at 37, his best years are possibly behind him, and we could be witnessing the tail end of his career. 2-2-1 in his last five fights, Green has mentioned that he no longer is looking for fights that get him near the belt and instead looks for fights that get him paid. He had his shot at the top when he stepped in on short notice against Makhachev, and perhaps that experience made him realize how far he was from ever winning a title. Green has an unorthodox style that utilizes boxing and counterpunching. He can wrestle, but he uses it more to defend takedowns rather than initiate them. Green averages, 11 minutes 33 seconds of fight time, 6.15 significant strikes landed per minute, and defended 75% of takedowns coming his way. He averages 1.21 takedowns per fifteen minutes but only succeeds on 37% of attempts.
Turner steps in to capitalize on the co-main event paycheck and possibly a bonus check, as every fight that includes Green is filled with violence and excitement. Turner is fresh off his second loss and is looking to snap the losing streak. Similar to Hooker, Turner has a significant height (5 inches) and reach advantage (6 inches) that should serve him well and keep Green at the end of his strikes. Turner averages 7 minutes 31 seconds of fight time, 5.82 significant strikes landed per minute and attempts 0.91 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also defends 75% of takedowns coming his way, a number that has improved since joining the UFC. Turner is a violent fighter and has never won a fight in the UFC by decision. 69% of his wins are by knockout and 31% by submission. He had a four-fight winning streak in which he ended all his fights by submission 2020-22. Turner can win this fight inside the distance and considering that he is stepping in on short notice, his gas tank could be taxed if this fight goes into deep waters.
From a betting perspective, I can see the value play on Green. Still, I wouldn’t say I like it much, and I think the size discrepancy and Green’s durability issues (he’s old) could be a problem. Therefore, I will back Turner to find another finish and keep his near 100% finish rate alive. I also like that Turner is still motivated by the belt and not just money like Green, so he will be looking to win by any means necessary to snap his losing streak.
Bet: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO or submission +130 | Turner/Green over 1.5 rounds -182 | Jalin Turner in Round 3 or by decision +195
Font vs. Figueiredo Odds
Rob Font -140, Deiveson Figueiredo +115
Font steps into the octagon for the third time in 2023 Saturday. He’s looking to bounce back after a lackluster performance against Cory Sandhagen his last time out. Font is 2-3 in his previous five fights, losing to Chito Vera, Jose Aldo and Sandhagen. His win against Adrian Yanez showed that Font has power and can end fights at any moment. Still, his ability to fight off his back or prevent takedowns is a liability and can get him in trouble this weekend against Deiveson Figueiredo. Font has been in the UFC for quite some time now, so he has fought wrestlers in the past and won. For example, he beat Ricky Simon in 2019. Still, the difference between Simon and Figueiredo is that Figueiredo has power and better striking and doesn’t have to depend on only his grappling to win. Font has a massive height and reach advantage in this fight, and Figueiredo will debut as a bantamweight for the first time after fighting most of his career at flyweight.
So perhaps the power advantage lies with Font, who has been fighting at a heavier weight class for longer. Still, the height and reach advantage gap can be closed because Figueiredo power can transcend weight classes and now doesn’t have to cut so much weight. Font averages 12 minutes and 42 seconds of fight time, nearly triple the number of significant strikes Figueiredo lands. But the biggest concern for me is his takedown defense. Against Cory Sandhagen, he wasn’t able to stop a single takedown, and Cory Sandhagen averaged landing takedowns 33% of the time. Perhaps Font defends the first couple of takedown attempts and keeps Figueiredo at a distance with his jab. But eventually, if Font doesn’t put Figueiredo away with his boxing or is able to defend takedowns nearly 100% of the time, I can’t see him having much success against a grappler like Figueiredo. Especially now that he has Henry Cejudo, a former Olympic champion, in his corner. I always try to envision the evolution of a fighter and focus less on the mishaps they had in the past.
Figueiredo has fought Brandon Moreno four times, and Brandon Moreno is a world-class grappler and MMA fighter. I use the term MMA because this will be a mixed martial arts fight and not a boxing fight or brawl the way that Font needs it to be for him to have success. To me, the value is with “The God of War,” and I will be backing him as the slight underdog and will also be taking a shot at his sub-prop.
Bet: Deiveson Figueiredo ML +115 | Figueiredo by submission +475
Gastelum vs. Brady Odds
Kelvin Gastelum -106, Sean Brady -120
Gastelum returns to the welterweight division this weekend after weight-cutting issues in his past forced him to move up to middleweight for some time, where his peak was against Israel Adesanya in 2019, but after that, hasn’t seen much success and has found difficulty getting wins or staying healthy. Before his last fight earlier this year, Gastelum hadn’t fought all of 2022 because of canceled fights and injuries sustained in fight camp. Still, perhaps that time off and his dominant performance against Chris Curtis at middleweight earlier this year is why Gastelum is confident enough to make another run at welterweight. Gasoline debuted as a welterweight in 2013 and instantly made his mark with a three-fight win streak. His weight-cutting issues were severe in his fight against Tyron Woodley, though, where he missed weight by 9 pounds and performed understandably flat, which forced the move to middleweight.
Still even outsized as a middleweight, Gastelum has always been tough to wrestle against and can grapple well, averaging one takedown per 15 minutes and defending over 60% of takedowns coming his way. Not to mention that Gastelum can also box and averages 3.63 significant strikes landed per minute and has power behind his strikes. Since Brady debuted on the regional scene in 2014, he has always been a stud, utilizing his strength and grappling to maul his opponents. His striking was a big question mark heading into the big show, but he didn’t miss a step in his debut in 2019 and continued to utilize his strength and wrestling to dominate. He also displayed sharp striking, averaging over four significant strikes landed per minute, connecting on 53% of strikes thrown. Still, his base is his wrestling, and he will use his striking to find paths to the double or single-leg takedown. We can only assume Brady will be the best version of himself this weekend, but we can’t neglect that he was exposed against Belal Muhammad. Blau was strong enough to fend off Sean Brady‘s takedown attempts and damage him on the feet, which is something Gastelum can do to Brady.
The matchmakers did great once again with this matchup, which makes this fight tough to call. Still, after watching hours of tape on these guys, I have to go with Gastelum, who, if he can make weight comfortably, should be able to lean on his experience in the UFC and at the highest level to keep Brady on his feet and make this a scrap.
Bet: Kelvin Gastelum ML -106 | Gastelum by KO/TKO or points +100 | Gastelum in Round 3 or by decision +200
Guida vs. Silva Odds
Clay Guida +240, Joaquim Silva -330
It’s been 17 years since Clay Guida made his debut in the UFC, and here in 2023, he is still raging on, pushing his signature relentless pace and doing his part as a gatekeeper. Guida may not be potent offensively as of late, but he has been successful in outlasting his opponents and turning the tide in fights. Guida is 2-3 in his last five fights, and in his only fight this year against Rafa Garcia, he lacked effective striking, and once his grappling was neutralized, he didn’t offer much. This matchup against Joaquim Silva is another test for Guida as he has to mind the power and physical strength coming from the Silva side. Guida, in his prime, could’ve possibly mauled Silva and melted him with his pace and wrestling, similar to what Tsarukyan did earlier this year. But the physical strength advantage for Silva and his knockout power should be enough to keep this fight standing long enough for Silva to win two out of the three rounds before he potentially gases out from trying to knock Guida out.
It’s also important to note that Guida is only successful on 36% of takedown attempts, while Silva defends 60% of takedowns coming his way. Silva also lands 50% of his takedowns, so if he finds himself in top position, he could use his strength to dominate and damage Guida. Still, Guida has superhuman durability, so knocking him out doesn’t come easy, but he has been caught in submissions before, and one mistake on the ground can be costly against “Neto BJJ.” The pick is Silva to get it done against a legend who is commendable for still pushing a relentless pace and being active at 41 years old. But nobody beats Father Time, and barring any gas tank issues for Silva, I see him having no problems damaging Guida with his striking and limiting the takedowns from Guida.
Bet: Joaquim Silva to win and Round 2 to start -120 | Silva by KO/TKO or by submission -110 | Silva by submission +380
Soriano vs. Stoltzfus Odds
Punahele Soriano -310, Dustin Stoltzfus +230
Since joining the UFC in 2019, Soriano has been a mixed bag of highs and lows and currently sits at 3-3. When everything is clicking, Soriano can put your lights out instantly, and as a former wrestler, he has the physical and athletic abilities to defend takedowns and land his power. Still, his fight IQ can become a liability, possibly why he hasn’t figured it out yet. Against Roman Kopylov, Soriano began to lunge and chase Kopylov instead of hunting for his KO with tactics and technique. Eventually, Soriano was caught in the second round and knocked out. He reminded us once again that if Soriano loses his focus and gets impatient, he could resort to brawling and increasing the chances he gets knocked out.
Stoltzfus is better than his record displays. A slow starter by nature, Stoltzfus has successfully utilized his wrestling to exhaust his opponents and use his jiujitsu. In the UFC, though, the matchups have not been favorable. Stoltzfus has either been matched up with strikers that do enough damage to make his grappling a non-factor or has fought grapplers capable of nullifying Stoltzfus and submitting him. It doesn’t get easier this weekend, either, as Soriano has the wrestling chops, ohysical strength, and athleticism to negate anything coming from Stoltzfus. Barring a bad weight cut from Soriano, I can only see this as one-way traffic and Soriano getting the finish inside the distance.
Bet: Punahele Soriano by KO/TKO or by submission -125 | Soriano/Stoltzfus fight doesn’t go the distance -192 | Soriano in Rounds 1 or 2 +120
