Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Javonte Williams from EV Insight

Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards

Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-121) after it opened @ 58.5 (-117).

Pros

The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive blueprint to skew 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 41.7% run rate.
This week, Javonte Williams is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 85th percentile among RBs with 15.6 carries.
Among all RBs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 87th percentile for carries this year, taking on 55.7% of the workload in his team’s run game.
With a terrific tally of 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Javonte Williams stands among the best running backs in the league this year.

Cons

This game’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs.
The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Broncos this year (just 53.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Texans defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing just 3.61 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards