Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jahmyr GibbsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Jahmyr Gibbs’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- With a 4-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
- At the present time, the 10th-most run-oriented offense in the league (40.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Lions.
- Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are projected by the projection model to call 68.2 total plays in this game: the highest number on the slate this week.
- With a terrific total of 63.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (87th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places among the top RBs in the NFL this year.
- The Saints defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.59 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, New Orleans’s group of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
