NFL

Bets

November 29, 2023

Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-125).

Pros

A running game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game.
Our trusted projections expect Isiah Pacheco to total 17.8 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
After making up 40.9% of his offense’s rushing play calls last year, Isiah Pacheco has played a bigger part in the running game this year, now sitting at 63.0%.
Isiah Pacheco’s 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a material boost in his running skills over last year’s 50.0 figure.
This year, the shaky Packers run defense has given up a colossal 137.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in football.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 5th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards