Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-131) after it opened @ 53.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The model projects Austin Ekeler to notch 16.3 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Among all running backs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 54.5% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 34.7% run rate.
- When talking about blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
- Austin Ekeler’s ground effectiveness has declined this season, averaging just 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 mark last season.
- This year, the weak Patriots run defense has surrendered a monstrous 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 30th-highest rate in the NFL.
- The Patriots safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
