Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-131) after it opened @ 53.5 (-119).

Pros

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The model projects Austin Ekeler to notch 16.3 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Among all running backs, Austin Ekeler ranks in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 54.5% of the workload in his offense’s run game.

Cons

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 34.7% run rate.
When talking about blocking for rushers (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers grades out as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
Austin Ekeler’s ground effectiveness has declined this season, averaging just 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.87 mark last season.
This year, the weak Patriots run defense has surrendered a monstrous 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing ground game: the 30th-highest rate in the NFL.
The Patriots safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards