Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Saints vs. Lions
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-137/+106).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+106) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.8 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 63.7 plays per game.
- Alvin Kamara has been given 56.3% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- With an impressive rate of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Alvin Kamara places among the top RBs in the league this year.
Cons
- At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to run on 37.3% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
- This year, the fierce Detroit Lions run defense has given up a paltry 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the league.
- The Detroit Lions defensive ends project as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
