Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! This is the rare Thursday night when we’re lucky enough to have a huge slate of NBA action. Normally, Thursdays are for a small slate of marquee matchups to be showcased on TNT. To help facilitate rest for the In-Season Tournament, and because of the NBA’s neverending fear of Thursday Night Football, we actually benefit with a jampacked schedule of hoops.
We’re about 20% through the season which may not sound like a lot, but it’s enough of a sample size for most teams to determine their plan for the rest of the way. Bad teams that have started poorly can accept the writing on the wall and fire up their tanks. Good teams that have started slowly are beginning to plan a mid-season move to acquire more talent or maybe even tear things down to begin a rebuild. The very best teams have seen their rosters gel a bit and can start working on improving their roster and possibly getting their stars some rest. It’s still early, but we’ve reached an inflection point, and Thursday could teach us a lot about every team playing. Let’s dive into the games and see where value may lie.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Cavaliers -12, 220
My Projection – Cavaliers 116, Trail Blazers 101
Key Injuries – Anfernee Simons is out.
We have a few double-digit spreads Thursday, and this is the first of the group. The Cavaliers finally have all four of their top players healthy and on the floor together. Outside of a game against Miami on the second night of a back-to-back, they’ve played great basketball the last two weeks. They have two guards who can score and create for other players. They also have two guys who can protect the rim, guard several positions, and cover up for other players. It’s a great combination and the Cavaliers are worthy of being 12-point favorites and even bigger favorites per my projections. I generally don’t lay big numbers, because time and time again we see the better team carry a big lead into the fourth quarter but then shut down their starters and leave the back door open for their opponent to cover their spread late. For this game, I will forego the spread and instead play the team total under for Portland. The Trail Blazers have one of the worst collections of shooters in the NBA, which makes finding room to score on offense very difficult. They were able to score 114 against the Indiana Pacers and 121 against the Utah Jazz, but the former is redefining what “fast paced basketball” means and the latter has little interest in in playing defense at all. Tonight, the Trail Blazers face one of the best defenses in the league with a roster that matches up very well against Portland. I’m going to bet their team total under at 103.5 or higher.
Bets
Portland Trail Blazers Team Total Under 103.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
Current Line – Knicks -13.5, 218.5
My Projection – Knicks 115, Pistons 99
Key Injuries – Bojan Bogdanovic is questionable.
Speaking of fading bad teams with horrendous shooting ability, let’s fade the Pistons. The Pistons played Wednesday night at home and got demolished by the Lakers 133-107. It was a good spot for Detroit, who had been home for a few days and were facing a Lakers team ahead of a game the following night. They managed just 107 points despite getting up 97 shots and 14 free throw attempts. Thursday, on tired legs, they face a nightmare opponent in the New York Knicks. I have written before and will write again here about how good the Knicks and Tom Thibodeau-coached teams are against the very worst teams in the league. They don’t rest starters, lower players’ minutes load or look ahead to the next game like most teams. The Knicks bring the same high intensity they would have against a championship contender even when playing a team at the bottom of the standings. They not only win those games handily but do so with suffocating defense. They’ve even held a few of those teams, and a few good teams, under 100 points, and I think that’s what we’re going to see here. I project the Pistons to score 99 points, with more downside than upside to that number. The market sits at a juice heavy 102.5 at -120, but offering a nice looking under 101.5 at even odds. In general, it’s best to sell points rather than buy them and even though points are more valuable to team totals, the point from 101.5 +100 up to 102.5 is not worth the -120 being offered.
Bet
Detroit Pistons Team Total Under 101.5 (+100, BetMGM)
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Thunder -6, 233
My Projection – Thunder 119, Lakers 110
Key Injuries – LeBron James is questionable.
The Lakers are in a rough schedule spot. This is the last game of a four-game road trip, and they played Wednesday in Detroit. Although the victory over the Pistons was an easy one, there is a lot of built-up fatigue on the legs of a veteran roster. They face a young OKC Thunder squad that is rested and looking to end a two-game losing streak, games they had a chance to win. The Thunder are a bad matchup for LA in several areas. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not face a defender who can slow him down and should be able to attack the rim with little in his way. Not many players can slow down LeBron James, if he plays, but Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams can do about as good as a job as anyone against LBJ. Chet Holmgren looks like the type of true center that Anthony Davis has said he hates to face and showed us that he struggles to play against. It really is a nightmare situation and opponent for a Lakers team that has struggled with good teams so far this season. The Lakers have beaten the Suns twice and Cleveland, but their other eight wins were against teams that will struggle or fail to make the postseason. I think this a great time to go against the Lakers and lay just six points with the Thunder.
Bet
Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops – Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets -8, 224
This game involves two teams that are playing a different group than they have for most of the season. LaMelo Ball is out for the Charlotte Hornets, and he is the central piece of their team. He leads the offense every night and creates opportunities for everyone. It’s hard to know what to expect without him. The Hornets are also working to re-integrate Miles Bridges and it can be disruptive to add a new starter, even a talented one. For the Brooklyn Nets, they will have Cam Thomas for the first time in weeks. He is a high-usage scorer who will immediately take shots and opportunities that other players have had in his absence. There’s too much unknown for me to bet this game. I lean under and to the Hornets, but I have to pass.
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat -2, 238.5
This is the first of a two-game series of a great matchup of teams that play very differently. Indiana currently has the best offense in NBA history and is playing at one of the fastest paces in NBA history while somehow having a very low turnover rate. The Heat are a cagey, physical team that plays a slower, more defense oriented deliberate style of basketball. It should be a fun game, but it’s hard to figure out how this game will be played. We also don’t know whether Jimmy Butler will play, so we definitely can’t bet it until we know his status if we can even bet it at all.
Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs +7, 248
The prices for this game came out pretty close to my projections and there are reasons to avoid each of these teams tonight. The Spurs are playing for the first time after three days off which can cause rust to form for young teams like San Antonio. They are also at home for one game and then head out of town to play again Friday. Atlanta is mired in the middle of a road trip themselves and possibly looking ahead to their next game against the Milwaukee Bucks. No bets here.
Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves -10.5, 221.5
Anthony Edwards took a bad spill in his last game and is listed as doubtful. Minnesota is still a talented team without him, but I can’t confidently say they should be double digit favorites even against a bad team at home. That said, should the Utah Jazz without Lauri Markkanen on the second night of a back-to-back be less than a 15-point underdog? I really can’t say much about this game and feel good about it. I’m happy to skip this one.
Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls +8.5, 229
This came out close to my what my model says. There’s definitely a case to play some Bucks alternate spreads. The Bulls could be without Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso, but that could also mean the Bucks possibly rest a starter or two. It can also be hard for teams to adjust to a team without their stars that is forced to play different players in new lineups. That can be tough for opponents to adjust to, especially teams with a first-year head coach like Milwaukee. It feels like a Bucks smash spot, but no bets for me.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors -5, 228
This is another case of two teams I don’t want to back facing each other. The Clippers are in a terrible schedule spot. This is their second game in two nights and their fifth in seven. That is brutal for a largely veteran roster. This is also a two-game series which gives LA reason to maybe rest players so they can make up for the loss with a win in the next game. Unfortunately, they face a Golden State Warriors team that has played poor basketball for most of the season. They do have Draymond Green back and perhaps that helps settle things down, but I’m not ready to lay five points even at home.
