Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Browns
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-113/-115).
Pros
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
- The leading projections forecast the Browns to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Browns this year (a monstrous 66.5 per game on average).
- Our trusted projections expect David Njoku to accumulate 7.5 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The Rams pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 8.42 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- After totaling 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 25.0 per game.
- David Njoku’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 77.2% to 67.5%.
- David Njoku’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, notching just 6.53 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.91 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
