Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Aaron Jones has run for substantially more yards per game (65.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-most yards in football (146 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards