Week 13 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-133) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 13.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (63.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (39.7% in games he has played).
Isiah Pacheco’s running effectiveness (4.97 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among RBs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 32.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 4.27 yards-per-carry.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards