Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-120/-110).

Pros

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week’s contest (and call more carries) because they be forced to use backup QB Tim Boyle.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Jets to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate among all teams this week.
With a stellar 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (77th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin stands among the leading pass-game TEs in football.
The Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (61.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

The New York Jets have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in the league this year.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards